As the Tesla Model 3 enters production, oil companies revise estimates of EVs on the road upwards to 530 million by 2040

Tesla’s runaway success with the relatively economical Model 3, just entering production, together with major pushes forward into plug-in automobiles from most major manufacturers has oil companies sweating the numbers a bit.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), a researcher, projects oil demand will drop by 8 million barrels by the year 2040.

 

The Tesla Model 3 may do for mainstream buyers what the S did for luxury buyers. Longer range and lower costs resulted in massive pre-orders.

 

Projections from the oil industry have shot upwards dramatically:

  • Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects electric cars will outsell gas or diesel by 2040 and expects 530 million on the road that year.
  • Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised 2040 EV projection to 266 million (from only 46 million previously predicted).
  • International Energy Agency doubled its forecast for EVs to 58 million (from 23 million) by the year 2030.
  • Exxon Mobil estimates 100 million (previously they guessed 65 million) by 2040.

 

Volvo’s plugin electric V60. Volvo plans to go 100% electric in their automotive fleet by the year 2019!

 

Proven technology and economical batteries

The two factors influencing the dramatically increased estimates is the market success of companies like Tesla (and the success of the evolving technology that underpins them) and the decreasing costs of the lithium batteries. With new battery technology, long ranges became a reality.

Automotive Industry projects higher adoption

As high as the oil company projects are, automotive companies are shooting higher, pressured by governments and environmental activists to really make the technology a mainstream choice. With increasing infrastructure installations, and better batteries, the automotive industry is projecting much higher numbers:

  • Automotive companies, combined numbers, project to sell 6 million electric vehicles EACH year by the year 2025, 8 million a year by 2030 — again according to Bloomberg.
  • Volvo AB will go fully electric (no gas options) by 2019

Did you miss this?

Other Popular Stories

  • Concept car from Terrafugia has vertical takeoff and landing
  • $26 Trillion needed over 13 years to power infrastructure for world's fastest growing economies
  • Colossal Fusion Project Set to Transform the Energy Industry
  • Wind projects going ahead in Quebec, public not necessarily on board
  • Cement industry opposes wood construction in taller buildings
  • Canada's oil sands dispute with EU flares
  • UN aviation body sets first CO2 emissions standard for world's airlines
  • Oil & Gas Report: Iran sanctions not priced into Brent "room for a runup in prices towards the end of the year"
  • Electricity-conducting cement could make runways, roads ice proof
  • Bombardier holds update on CSeries aircraft
  • $25.8 million Low Carbon Innovation Fund aims to help commercialize technologies that reduce greenhouse emissions.
  • Manufacturing sales up in September but shadow of Trump looms over Canada
  • Pipelines safer than rail or truck for oil: report
  • Five defence industry technologies — right out of science fiction — that are real today
  • Auto industry back on top as Canada's biggest exporter: report
  • Builders urge Ontario to allow six-storey wooden structures
  • Tesla Announces New All-Electric Semis
  • Some industry support for new water heater regulations
  • Canada's small businesses encouraged to invest for success
  • IKEA buys Alberta wind farm
Scroll to Top